According to the recent National Bureau of statistics released data show 2012 1-5 month, China scale larger liquid level measurement enterprises producing finished funds an increase of 14.3%, dropped 1.5 percentage points compared with the growth rate from January to April, down speed is 1 to 4 in speeding up 0.9 percentage points. Because of the size of the above 1 to May levels of business income growth continued to decline, the data show that the current level of measurement companies are still in the inventory cycle of the initiative to inventory stage. At this stage, due to the deterioration of the economic outlook is expected to decline in demand, the enterprise will increase the intensity of inventory. This will further push. Move the price decline, deterioration of the supply-demand relationship, which in turn leads to magnetic level gauge sales revenue and profit to drop faster. But the author thinks, the fastest in the year half level measuring enterprise may began to fill the inventory, that is to say, the liquid level measurement of enterprise supply and demand is expected to pick up in the second half.
Our country before the three inventory cycle down period are: September 2000 to January 2002, March 2004 to July 2005, February 2008 to January 2009. In addition to a recent downward period is strongly shortened to 12 months, the remaining two are 17 months. As if to April 2011 at the end of the magnetic float level meter manufactured goods capital an increase of 23.2% as the high point on the probability of inventory, according to the calculation of 17 months, the bottom of the current inventory cycle should be in August 2012.
From the liquid level measurement products ex factory price index (PPI) point of view, as long as the PPI continues to decline, enterprises will be because of the reduction of profits and lack of inventory, increase the power. However, according to the combination of the value of the commodity price trend of CITIC Securities to predict the trend of history, the bottom of the current round of PPI rose in July. Terms of the also from PMI is the main raw material purchase price index, the index usually leading PPI a quarter or two, if that 41.2% in June has bottomed out, the bottom of the PPI as early as may appear in September.